2010 Will See Consolidation and FoldUps

Interesting perspective, and it's hard to disagree with your assessment frankly. It's probably what makes the most sense for the social space to truly flourish. I'm hearing about all kinds of opportunities right now that would have been unheard of a year ago. The market is getting its footing, and with that comes serious plays in the industry by companies that see the opportunity to scoop up the most promising stars.

As my neighbor Kyle would say, Shine On Chris. :)

I couldn't agree with you more, in every industry there is a settling or as I call it separation of the wheat from the chaff — where everyone gets back to business and the “shiny-ness” of an object dulls :-) Great prediction.

Don't you ever get tired of being right? Despite the projected growth of social media, the field is crowded and the economy is only beginning to recover. That's a recipe for consolidation. Your advice is, as usual, on target.

Facebook seems to be in the late majority phase while Twitter is still in early majority (if you're talking about classic innovation diffusion models). Regardless, both are well beyond early adopter.

I also have some doubt that larger players will merge (in the traditional acquisition sense). If we've learned anything recently it's that small, nimble companies with great ideas can grow up without being acquired by Google. Instead, I think we'll see larger firms work together more (like we've seen with LinkedIn, Facebook, and Twitter playing relatively nicely). This, however, has negative externalities in that it could stifle the innovation of smaller firms.

I think you're right, a lot of startup renegades will be absorbed into corporate gigs in 2010. As difficult as the economy was in 2009, there were also moments of creative brilliance and freedom for those of us trying to win the fight of new media within our niches. One day, when things “normalize,” many of us will sit in our swanky corner offices and reminisce “Remember 2009? Wasn't that great?! We did some great stuff back then.” Is it sad? No. Shaping the corporate culture from within is the next logical step of the new media evolution. Much gratitude and respect to you and David Armano for your thought provoking contributions and leadership during a phenomenal year, and all the best from wherever you continue the cause in 2010. All choices are valid.

Financial turmoil is always a time of big opportunities. And yes, it's always great to team up with people who are strong in the areas that we are weak.

Thanks a lot for this post Chris, this is really a great realistic post for which i am looking.. This is true that in 2010 we will See the Consolidation and FoldUps.. Thanks for aware us with this information before 2010.

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Great advice. Really collaboration makes us stronger.

I have been working collaboratively on short term projects with a number of folks over the last couple of years. I see 2010 will lead me to work on longer term projects with those that I have built a level of trust with.

In my area (the Silicon Valley) I am seeing a ton of people who would consider themselves solo “consultants” joining forces frequently with those around them. Usually people they have met by frequently attending events or participating in social media.

Although I agree many larger companies will continue to identify emerging thought leaders and talented professionals I am under the strong impression that the next year or three we will see the rise of more entrepreneurs and consultants banding together to service each others clients. Social media is helping to accelerate the process of “getting to know” your potential partners.

I think we will also see more people and companies who had “pooh-poohed” the social media activities move into the arena and act like they just invented it.

As for people moving in-house, smart companies will both take people in as employees, but even smarter companies will partner with those who are looking to do great things and allow them to maintain their entrepreneurial charge while lending their brands to the company. The biggest change I am seeing is that there are fewer “rules” on how the “employement arrangement” is set up – with more “results oriented” focus mattering.

Glad to hear these comments. Overall I think business needs to do this also.

Right on.

The Fortune Brands will seek out the guerrilla talent, again, hopefully 'wringing out the snake oil' in the process.

Excellent points.

I think we'll see people yesterday's Social Media Corporate laggards finally get into the space just as the early adopters needs are evolving beyond simple monitoring. We now know that we can aggregate streams, monitor trends, zero in on influencers and understand sentiment (with mixed success). I think now, companies will began to demand more on the measurement side of things. 2010 will be a big year for metrics. http://bit.ly/5Ju1ft

Chris,

It's interesting, I agree with you and it feel like 1994 all over again. I think that not only will we see some of what you said but we may see the tech sector start to lead the country out of the recession with big IPO's for companies that serve as platforms for social media. If you remember the early 90's well there was a bunch of media hype big IPO's and then real business models emerged. Just like technology advances, business advances have shorter cycle so not only does fold up and consolidate happen quicker but better more successful business models will emerge quicker as well.

And don't forget that there will be companies that will start up in 2010 that will see new opportunities that the established firms think are too small to attack. Some of these companies will be the biggest competitors in the coming years.

It is a cycle, as New Media Labs filled holes the traditional companies left open, odds are there will be new companies doing the same to New Media Labs. :)

Yes, yes, yes. Too many snake oil, get rich quick, spammers out there. No substance has consequences. Being helpful will pay off in 2010. Collaborate yes, but still outsource. I remember when my agency was frowned upon for only having 38 employees. Now I hear “oh that's too bad” when I tell people there are 16 of us. Interesting times.

With 21% unemployment, those “skills” you mentioned should include hunting, fishing, splitting firewood, fixing your own stuff, mending clothes, cooking food, and all the other basic life needs. It's not gloom-n-doom, it's the coming reality.

I would agree completely Chris, consolidation of fast moving and fast growth segments have been something that continues to persist. I know in the restaurant space where I write on the growth segments like fast casual we see this as well.

I do think that the start up guys have used this time to position themselves so that the larger groups and companies recognize their efforts and achievements. Kind of a proving ground for new media types. And I do think we will see many SM evangelists moving on to bigger companies or partnering, there will be a few though that may take this as an opportunity to move into the vacant spot of thought leaders. In the case with Armano, he may get diluted some under a new org which would be a sad thing.

But I always say there is someone right behind you with better and newer ideas unless you live and breath it.

I was just reading a Social Media article by Angela Conner about giving yourself permission to opt-out of social medias and emails in 2010. This must the day of review, decluttering, and destressing.

I agree with assessment (prediction) there will be a consoldiation as social media matures and the business models evolve to the next level

The good news is we will see a lot of new content created about other subjects other than social media… that would be refreshing.

Chris- Thanks for this post… I agree with you.. We are an “entitled” culture in the US, etc. and most people are not willing to put in the “activity” to sustain growth, an serve customers…
Activity=Sales.. and sales makes the world spin….

Best, Brian-

Smart ass comment alert: So if it's “just business” and this goes on all the time, in all industries, how much of a “prediction” for 2010 is this really?

But you're right. I personally think there will be more consolidation than fold-up. As the bigger businesses seek to enter/increase their social media presence, they will either start hiring those that are looking to tuck themselves into larger entities, or they will buy the startups and integrate them. That's true business right there!

P.S. When you purchase some of these “secret”possessions, if you start hiring, I'd love a shot. I have no problem being integrated! Take care and Happy Holidays!

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I think your analogy to prospecting in the gold rush is a fitting metaphor. We’ll see people redirect from the social media rush to find their opportunity making blue jeans for the miners, opening restaurants to feed them or building wagons to haul their equipment. I’m eager to see the similar applications growing out of the flurry of social media activity we’ve seen in the last two years. Not gloomy at all – just newly developing opportunities.