September 17, 2007 25 Comments

Jumping Ahead

jumproper For most companies, being in the here and now, the today, isn’t good enough. It’s not all that useful to be one of the crowd. That’s why companies say “leading edge” every 20 words in their messaging. And yet, for many people, just making sense of today is a full time job. For every blog thinking about the future, there is a Lifehack.org helping you make today work. But how will WE (you and me) be useful unless we take a step outside the stream, and look way ahead, out to where things are going to change? What will we do to better understand where today’s tools and services and strategies are going unless we move even further out?

From Today to Next Year

Look at everything you use today, everything you spend time on today, and ask what it will be like when multiplied. When your phone gets better and more mobile (a-la where the iPhone has started, but where N95 has already long been playing), how will we use it differently than our laptops?

What will a world where Facebook wins look like? Or Ning? What will it be like when Twitter gives in to the critics and gets fat? In a world (today) where social networks are multiplying faster than empty diet Coke bottles in my trash bins, what will get us out and above the crowd, or which gesture will make the most sense? TODAY, I can reach fairly prominent people on Facebook. When we ALL get wind of this, I won’t be able to do that. What will come next?

When It Pops

It’s super easy to feel optimistic about all this while the VC money is flowing again. What happens when the ocean gets boiled again? Where will the “high ground” or the “deep water” be, and how can we find that? Look for those vectors now, and you might find yourself supporting something that doesn’t immediately look like the winner.

The Human Web

People say that Web 3.0 will be the Semantic Web. My scratchy definition is that it’s the web that is strongly influenced by relationships (human and otherwise), as well as by smarter things. This means that I think my laptop and my phone will know each other are side by side, and allow me to better understand that they’re near each other. My car will know I’m near my favorite DVD pick-up kiosk (when Netflix gets faster, but still physical media) and tell me that Smoking Aces 2 is available.

Further, when I’m at a meetup, you’re going to know I’m there, what I’m interested in, and all my contact info, before you’ve said hello. We’ll have hyperfast speed-dating of interests. What will that do for us? How will the HUMAN part of all this technology grow and advance?

In a world of everyone making media, what makes VALUE (not just monetary, but attention value)?

Why I Am Poking This Button

There are TONS of commentators out there refurbishing the same conversations. These are useful to people seeking to make sense from all this. Great. I am thankful you’re helping, and you’re educating me in the process. I’m glad to be part of that conversation.

But to be helpful, to organizations, to you, to people who want to figure out how this will all be useful instead of a distraction. I want to know where the next depth will be found. And for that, I’m asking you to jump ahead, too. Maybe here in the comments, or more likely on your own blogs. Let’s just think on the future for a little, can we? Where will this stuff all go? (Whatever you want to talk about… let’s jump ahead).

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  • http://jburg.typepad.com Jon Burg

    The future is going to remain hazy until we get there, and even while we there, it will always be a few steps ahead – that’s the nature of the future.

    Mobile devices will deliver content and function on the go, but their form factor limitations (size and input) will limit their usability as a replacement for our laptops. As mobile devices get richer and more capable, so will our uses of them. As you so aptly put it – Twitter will get fat. I don’t know that this means that we will use all of the fat functionality (how much of the “fat” in AIM do you use and how much of it is noise?), but it’s nice to have it there for the occasional simulcast of an event from you phone.

    Think of it this way: it 10 years from now, when we are facing an unexpected national event (assassination, terrorist attack, or act of bravery), CNN will be restreaming an amateur’s Twivver (twitter+video) live video of the event.

    As for social networks: this entire field is still a mess. Alphas and leaders are dictate where we go. Once we’re all there, it gets cluttered (not by us, by everyone and the inevitable spam + crowding that will naturally follow), so they move on. Facebook is years ahead of MySpace in controlling your network. The next big thing (or next iteration of a current offering) will have even more.

    Ultimately, the most successful digital social network will mirror our analog social networks. The next gen network will be able to track our “levels” of friendship – just as we do in the real world. There are some friends I hug, some I shake hands with, some I casually say hi to.

    Web 3.0 is not coming tomorrow. It’s been here for years (Amazon) and it’s gradually growing everyday. That being said, we aren’t in the age of web 3.0, we are in the early stages of web 2.0 to 3.0 evolution. Del.icio.us links and networks aggregate and compare our tastes, likes and trends, publishing them to blogs for others to enjoy. This is just the first step in the social driven semantically served web surfing experience. Ultimatly my RSS reader will know what I like, what others like me like, and will make recommendations based on these behaviors.

    My social network will be driven based on these and other tracked behaviors. My social network will have an upload to VCard functionality that will speak directly to my phone, uploading all of someone’s personal data.

    The experience will get richer, the integration stronger. But this is a very gradual process.
    It’s not going to be an overnight revolution.

    Web 3.o is not going to be an overnight revolution, though mass media will for years claim it has just occurred (sensationalism sells). It’s going to be a gradual transition in both our surfing behavior and the technical abilities of our online/digital destinations and portals.

    There is more to this than what I’ve written above, these are just some high level thoughts. I’d love to hear yours!

  • http://jburg.typepad.com Jon Burg

    The future is going to remain hazy until we get there, and even while we there, it will always be a few steps ahead – that’s the nature of the future.

    Mobile devices will deliver content and function on the go, but their form factor limitations (size and input) will limit their usability as a replacement for our laptops. As mobile devices get richer and more capable, so will our uses of them. As you so aptly put it – Twitter will get fat. I don’t know that this means that we will use all of the fat functionality (how much of the “fat” in AIM do you use and how much of it is noise?), but it’s nice to have it there for the occasional simulcast of an event from you phone.

    Think of it this way: it 10 years from now, when we are facing an unexpected national event (assassination, terrorist attack, or act of bravery), CNN will be restreaming an amateur’s Twivver (twitter+video) live video of the event.

    As for social networks: this entire field is still a mess. Alphas and leaders are dictate where we go. Once we’re all there, it gets cluttered (not by us, by everyone and the inevitable spam + crowding that will naturally follow), so they move on. Facebook is years ahead of MySpace in controlling your network. The next big thing (or next iteration of a current offering) will have even more.

    Ultimately, the most successful digital social network will mirror our analog social networks. The next gen network will be able to track our “levels” of friendship – just as we do in the real world. There are some friends I hug, some I shake hands with, some I casually say hi to.

    Web 3.0 is not coming tomorrow. It’s been here for years (Amazon) and it’s gradually growing everyday. That being said, we aren’t in the age of web 3.0, we are in the early stages of web 2.0 to 3.0 evolution. Del.icio.us links and networks aggregate and compare our tastes, likes and trends, publishing them to blogs for others to enjoy. This is just the first step in the social driven semantically served web surfing experience. Ultimatly my RSS reader will know what I like, what others like me like, and will make recommendations based on these behaviors.

    My social network will be driven based on these and other tracked behaviors. My social network will have an upload to VCard functionality that will speak directly to my phone, uploading all of someone’s personal data.

    The experience will get richer, the integration stronger. But this is a very gradual process.
    It’s not going to be an overnight revolution.

    Web 3.o is not going to be an overnight revolution, though mass media will for years claim it has just occurred (sensationalism sells). It’s going to be a gradual transition in both our surfing behavior and the technical abilities of our online/digital destinations and portals.

    There is more to this than what I’ve written above, these are just some high level thoughts. I’d love to hear yours!

  • http://jburg.typepad.com Jon Burg

    The future is going to remain hazy until we get there, and even while we there, it will always be a few steps ahead – that’s the nature of the future.

    Mobile devices will deliver content and function on the go, but their form factor limitations (size and input) will limit their usability as a replacement for our laptops. As mobile devices get richer and more capable, so will our uses of them. As you so aptly put it – Twitter will get fat. I don’t know that this means that we will use all of the fat functionality (how much of the “fat” in AIM do you use and how much of it is noise?), but it’s nice to have it there for the occasional simulcast of an event from you phone.

    Think of it this way: it 10 years from now, when we are facing an unexpected national event (assassination, terrorist attack, or act of bravery), CNN will be restreaming an amateur’s Twivver (twitter+video) live video of the event.

    As for social networks: this entire field is still a mess. Alphas and leaders are dictate where we go. Once we’re all there, it gets cluttered (not by us, by everyone and the inevitable spam + crowding that will naturally follow), so they move on. Facebook is years ahead of MySpace in controlling your network. The next big thing (or next iteration of a current offering) will have even more.

    Ultimately, the most successful digital social network will mirror our analog social networks. The next gen network will be able to track our “levels” of friendship – just as we do in the real world. There are some friends I hug, some I shake hands with, some I casually say hi to.

    Web 3.0 is not coming tomorrow. It’s been here for years (Amazon) and it’s gradually growing everyday. That being said, we aren’t in the age of web 3.0, we are in the early stages of web 2.0 to 3.0 evolution. Del.icio.us links and networks aggregate and compare our tastes, likes and trends, publishing them to blogs for others to enjoy. This is just the first step in the social driven semantically served web surfing experience. Ultimatly my RSS reader will know what I like, what others like me like, and will make recommendations based on these behaviors.

    My social network will be driven based on these and other tracked behaviors. My social network will have an upload to VCard functionality that will speak directly to my phone, uploading all of someone’s personal data.

    The experience will get richer, the integration stronger. But this is a very gradual process.
    It’s not going to be an overnight revolution.

    Web 3.o is not going to be an overnight revolution, though mass media will for years claim it has just occurred (sensationalism sells). It’s going to be a gradual transition in both our surfing behavior and the technical abilities of our online/digital destinations and portals.

    There is more to this than what I’ve written above, these are just some high level thoughts. I’d love to hear yours!

  • http://jburg.typepad.com Jon Burg

    The future is going to remain hazy until we get there, and even while we there, it will always be a few steps ahead – that’s the nature of the future.

    Mobile devices will deliver content and function on the go, but their form factor limitations (size and input) will limit their usability as a replacement for our laptops. As mobile devices get richer and more capable, so will our uses of them. As you so aptly put it – Twitter will get fat. I don’t know that this means that we will use all of the fat functionality (how much of the “fat” in AIM do you use and how much of it is noise?), but it’s nice to have it there for the occasional simulcast of an event from you phone.

    Think of it this way: it 10 years from now, when we are facing an unexpected national event (assassination, terrorist attack, or act of bravery), CNN will be restreaming an amateur’s Twivver (twitter+video) live video of the event.

    As for social networks: this entire field is still a mess. Alphas and leaders are dictate where we go. Once we’re all there, it gets cluttered (not by us, by everyone and the inevitable spam + crowding that will naturally follow), so they move on. Facebook is years ahead of MySpace in controlling your network. The next big thing (or next iteration of a current offering) will have even more.

    Ultimately, the most successful digital social network will mirror our analog social networks. The next gen network will be able to track our “levels” of friendship – just as we do in the real world. There are some friends I hug, some I shake hands with, some I casually say hi to.

    Web 3.0 is not coming tomorrow. It’s been here for years (Amazon) and it’s gradually growing everyday. That being said, we aren’t in the age of web 3.0, we are in the early stages of web 2.0 to 3.0 evolution. Del.icio.us links and networks aggregate and compare our tastes, likes and trends, publishing them to blogs for others to enjoy. This is just the first step in the social driven semantically served web surfing experience. Ultimatly my RSS reader will know what I like, what others like me like, and will make recommendations based on these behaviors.

    My social network will be driven based on these and other tracked behaviors. My social network will have an upload to VCard functionality that will speak directly to my phone, uploading all of someone’s personal data.

    The experience will get richer, the integration stronger. But this is a very gradual process.
    It’s not going to be an overnight revolution.

    Web 3.o is not going to be an overnight revolution, though mass media will for years claim it has just occurred (sensationalism sells). It’s going to be a gradual transition in both our surfing behavior and the technical abilities of our online/digital destinations and portals.

    There is more to this than what I’ve written above, these are just some high level thoughts. I’d love to hear yours!

  • http://www.livingstonbuzz.com/blog Geoff Livingston

    Exciting topic. I’d have to say motion recognition technologies and their impact on social media fascinates me.

    All of this is 2D, what happens when we can go 3D, into the social network just like second life promises but fails to deliver (today). Look at where tech is going, mobile _+ recognition + video equals some interesting stew in my book.

  • http://www.livingstonbuzz.com/blog Geoff Livingston

    Exciting topic. I’d have to say motion recognition technologies and their impact on social media fascinates me.

    All of this is 2D, what happens when we can go 3D, into the social network just like second life promises but fails to deliver (today). Look at where tech is going, mobile _+ recognition + video equals some interesting stew in my book.

  • http://www.livingstonbuzz.com/blog Geoff Livingston

    Exciting topic. I’d have to say motion recognition technologies and their impact on social media fascinates me.

    All of this is 2D, what happens when we can go 3D, into the social network just like second life promises but fails to deliver (today). Look at where tech is going, mobile _+ recognition + video equals some interesting stew in my book.

  • Anonymous

    Great conversation and ideas. I’m struck with two basic ideas. First, I think our conversations about web 1.5 v. web 2.0 v. web 3.0 all have to take into consideration a) level the technology and b) the level of cultural adoption of the technology (if its mainstreaming and its use is being “maximized”). I think its easy to conflate the two. Its great that Facebook is being used by X number of people and its still in the process of mainstreaming. I think YouTube is in a similar position (even if 75% of the population viewed a youtube video in July). I don’t mean to be a skeptic, but I think the later part is really around web 1.75 plus or minus.

    Second, mobile, mobile, mobile. I think the iPhone will kick it up a notch. And as phones become true multimedia devices–meaning that photos are more than pixelated blurs (and hopefully as both palm devices/iphones and internet mobile prices come down) mobile is where its at.

    Thoughts?

  • Anonymous

    Great conversation and ideas. I’m struck with two basic ideas. First, I think our conversations about web 1.5 v. web 2.0 v. web 3.0 all have to take into consideration a) level the technology and b) the level of cultural adoption of the technology (if its mainstreaming and its use is being “maximized”). I think its easy to conflate the two. Its great that Facebook is being used by X number of people and its still in the process of mainstreaming. I think YouTube is in a similar position (even if 75% of the population viewed a youtube video in July). I don’t mean to be a skeptic, but I think the later part is really around web 1.75 plus or minus.

    Second, mobile, mobile, mobile. I think the iPhone will kick it up a notch. And as phones become true multimedia devices–meaning that photos are more than pixelated blurs (and hopefully as both palm devices/iphones and internet mobile prices come down) mobile is where its at.

    Thoughts?

  • Anonymous

    Great conversation and ideas. I’m struck with two basic ideas. First, I think our conversations about web 1.5 v. web 2.0 v. web 3.0 all have to take into consideration a) level the technology and b) the level of cultural adoption of the technology (if its mainstreaming and its use is being “maximized”). I think its easy to conflate the two. Its great that Facebook is being used by X number of people and its still in the process of mainstreaming. I think YouTube is in a similar position (even if 75% of the population viewed a youtube video in July). I don’t mean to be a skeptic, but I think the later part is really around web 1.75 plus or minus.

    Second, mobile, mobile, mobile. I think the iPhone will kick it up a notch. And as phones become true multimedia devices–meaning that photos are more than pixelated blurs (and hopefully as both palm devices/iphones and internet mobile prices come down) mobile is where its at.

    Thoughts?

  • http://compassioninpolitics.wordpress.com/ Nathan Ketsdever

    Great conversation and ideas. I’m struck with two basic ideas. First, I think our conversations about web 1.5 v. web 2.0 v. web 3.0 all have to take into consideration a) level the technology and b) the level of cultural adoption of the technology (if its mainstreaming and its use is being “maximized”). I think its easy to conflate the two. Its great that Facebook is being used by X number of people and its still in the process of mainstreaming. I think YouTube is in a similar position (even if 75% of the population viewed a youtube video in July). I don’t mean to be a skeptic, but I think the later part is really around web 1.75 plus or minus.

    Second, mobile, mobile, mobile. I think the iPhone will kick it up a notch. And as phones become true multimedia devices–meaning that photos are more than pixelated blurs (and hopefully as both palm devices/iphones and internet mobile prices come down) mobile is where its at.

    Thoughts?

  • http://cellojourney.com Luke Pomorski

    It is great that you are exploring these issues in your post.

    I am wondering whether the future of the internet will have something to do with trends concerning anonymity. People are more willing to voice their opinions on the internet using their real names. You have blogs, things like LinkedIn and Facebook.
    YouTube still has a ways to go as most of the videos on there are anonymous. It may take 5 years to get there.

  • http://cellojourney.com Luke Pomorski

    It is great that you are exploring these issues in your post.

    I am wondering whether the future of the internet will have something to do with trends concerning anonymity. People are more willing to voice their opinions on the internet using their real names. You have blogs, things like LinkedIn and Facebook.
    YouTube still has a ways to go as most of the videos on there are anonymous. It may take 5 years to get there.

  • http://cellojourney.com Luke Pomorski

    It is great that you are exploring these issues in your post.

    I am wondering whether the future of the internet will have something to do with trends concerning anonymity. People are more willing to voice their opinions on the internet using their real names. You have blogs, things like LinkedIn and Facebook.
    YouTube still has a ways to go as most of the videos on there are anonymous. It may take 5 years to get there.

  • http://cellojourney.com Luke Pomorski

    It is great that you are exploring these issues in your post.

    I am wondering whether the future of the internet will have something to do with trends concerning anonymity. People are more willing to voice their opinions on the internet using their real names. You have blogs, things like LinkedIn and Facebook.
    YouTube still has a ways to go as most of the videos on there are anonymous. It may take 5 years to get there.

  • http://www.theuntitledjustinadamsproject.com/ Justin

    Technology Advancement scares the hell out of me. Thinking of new Ipods, cell phones, computers, i consider them things that keep getting improved but are already good enough. Well, maybe laptops can be improved. Like better battery life.

  • http://www.theuntitledjustinadamsproject.com/ Justin

    Technology Advancement scares the hell out of me. Thinking of new Ipods, cell phones, computers, i consider them things that keep getting improved but are already good enough. Well, maybe laptops can be improved. Like better battery life.

  • http://www.theuntitledjustinadamsproject.com/ Justin

    Technology Advancement scares the hell out of me. Thinking of new Ipods, cell phones, computers, i consider them things that keep getting improved but are already good enough. Well, maybe laptops can be improved. Like better battery life.

  • http://www.theuntitledjustinadamsproject.com/ Justin

    Technology Advancement scares the hell out of me. Thinking of new Ipods, cell phones, computers, i consider them things that keep getting improved but are already good enough. Well, maybe laptops can be improved. Like better battery life.

  • http://www.hh-shelanu.org Rebecca Rachmany

    Social media is so fragmented today; the future is going to be with places that can consolidate it and make it manageable for normal people.

    I look at people like you and guy kawasaki and jeff pulver, and I think, GEEZE, these guys are online all the time, jeff has a driver so he can be online even when he is stuck in traffic.

    But I have a day job. I have to exercise to keep this physical body working. I have to cook and serve my kids real food and not just throw food at them in Facebook. How can I even read everyting coming in to me on RSS? What, I *need* a blog?

    Someone is going to have to consolidate all this, make it easy for me to see all those things I am doing on line, give me better control of what kind of friends I have. I want to send flowers and fish to my daughter but I don’t want my professoinal colleagues to see my aquarium, and I don’t want two personalities on all the social networks — it’s bad enough to be a member of 10 of them, and 3 different IM networks and …OMG it’s out of control.

    The future is going to have to mean more control and more automatic intuitive control for the users. Even guys who have time to broadcast themselves talking about nothing for an hour from the back of a car in Long Island aren’t going to be able to manage this much information and these many “friends” in their heads or with their delicious tags.

  • http://www.hh-shelanu.org Rebecca Rachmany

    Social media is so fragmented today; the future is going to be with places that can consolidate it and make it manageable for normal people.

    I look at people like you and guy kawasaki and jeff pulver, and I think, GEEZE, these guys are online all the time, jeff has a driver so he can be online even when he is stuck in traffic.

    But I have a day job. I have to exercise to keep this physical body working. I have to cook and serve my kids real food and not just throw food at them in Facebook. How can I even read everyting coming in to me on RSS? What, I *need* a blog?

    Someone is going to have to consolidate all this, make it easy for me to see all those things I am doing on line, give me better control of what kind of friends I have. I want to send flowers and fish to my daughter but I don’t want my professoinal colleagues to see my aquarium, and I don’t want two personalities on all the social networks — it’s bad enough to be a member of 10 of them, and 3 different IM networks and …OMG it’s out of control.

    The future is going to have to mean more control and more automatic intuitive control for the users. Even guys who have time to broadcast themselves talking about nothing for an hour from the back of a car in Long Island aren’t going to be able to manage this much information and these many “friends” in their heads or with their delicious tags.

  • http://www.hh-shelanu.org Rebecca Rachmany

    Social media is so fragmented today; the future is going to be with places that can consolidate it and make it manageable for normal people.

    I look at people like you and guy kawasaki and jeff pulver, and I think, GEEZE, these guys are online all the time, jeff has a driver so he can be online even when he is stuck in traffic.

    But I have a day job. I have to exercise to keep this physical body working. I have to cook and serve my kids real food and not just throw food at them in Facebook. How can I even read everyting coming in to me on RSS? What, I *need* a blog?

    Someone is going to have to consolidate all this, make it easy for me to see all those things I am doing on line, give me better control of what kind of friends I have. I want to send flowers and fish to my daughter but I don’t want my professoinal colleagues to see my aquarium, and I don’t want two personalities on all the social networks — it’s bad enough to be a member of 10 of them, and 3 different IM networks and …OMG it’s out of control.

    The future is going to have to mean more control and more automatic intuitive control for the users. Even guys who have time to broadcast themselves talking about nothing for an hour from the back of a car in Long Island aren’t going to be able to manage this much information and these many “friends” in their heads or with their delicious tags.

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