2010 Will See Consolidation and FoldUps

December 14, 2009 · Comments

store closing Yep, a prediction post about the social media space.

I think 2010 will see one of two activities for lots of people in the social space. First, note that I said people. Apps? We’ll see them come and go. That’s always. Predicting that is like predicting that there will be 31 days in January.

David Armano has moved to Edelman, getting out of the startup life and tucking himself into a bigger company. His post explains why, and I wish him well at Edelman, and the Dachis team well with 2010 (they’ve already done some neat stuff with consolidation, via their Collaboratory).

I think we’ll see more of that. I think we’ll see more solo people tucking in with bigger organizations. I also think we’ll see smaller groups banding together to form stronger groups, not just in marketing, but in any of the newer businesses out there. Collaboration, consolidation, and a refocusing on business value will drive a lot of the social space.

And/or, we’ll see foldups. People will pack it in and eke out livings in other ways. Maybe they tried the gold rush and gave up prospecting. Maybe their significant others have given up on the promise that there’s money in this stuff. Whatever the case, we’ll see a bunch of folks wrap up their solo efforts and leave the playing field for “safer” sports.

Companies in the social space will follow suit. We’ll see some consolidations and we’ll see some foldups. I’d tell you who, but I might want to buy one or two of them, so I’ll stay hush. Just watch for it.

Is This Gloomy?

No. I think this is business. This is a new space. There’s always an adoption curve, a glut, and then a thinning out – a normalizing. I think this is just part of the flow.

Where do I think New Marketing Labs falls into this? Well, we’re not folding up. :)

What are the Opportunities?

If I’m right (so far so good), I would recommend looking for who you could team up with to build a better social business. I’d look for the skills you lack, the capabilities you could stand to add, and find a team that will let you see 2010 through by having more capabilities and capacity than the other guys. There are lots of other folks who might be ready for the collaboration. One of you simply has to ask.

What’s your read on it all?

Photo credit joeannenah

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  • Collaborative Economies are something I speak on regularly,a long time passion. Love that the concept is finding larger footing http://uptownuncorked.com/2009/02/14/welcome-to...
  • Thank you for this information. I like the collaboration concept.
  • Scarlettjacob
    In 2010, I think we’ll see more solo people tucking in with bigger organizations. I also think we’ll see smaller groups banding together to form stronger groups, not just in marketing, but in any of the newer businesses out there. Collaboration, consolidation, and a refocusing on business value will drive a lot of the social space. And/or, we'll see foldups. People will pack it in and eke out livings in other ways.Mio Navman M450D
  • I like the collaboration concept. Inbound marketing pro + social media guru + outbound marketing whiz + conversion rate genius = comprehensive online marketing ecosystem.
  • I really think that we're getting to the point where the supply of tools exceeds the demand for those tools since all of these start-ups and basement developers swarmed to the social media scene hoping to snag a ride to the top. Now that the growth of social media is slowing, it's time for the key players to start asserting themselves and either buying some of these tools or creating their own (like goo.gl).

    It'll be interesting to see what players are still hanging around at this time next year.

    All in all, I definitely agree with your prediction (so much so that I wrote a very similar post a couple weeks ago on the topic: http://www.jackieadkins.com/2009/12/03/stop-con... ) :)
  • Partnering with other small firms has grown my talent and offerings while not adding one penny to my overhead. There is no reason that being small equates to cheap or weak. The trick is to see how smaller fish that get absorbed into larger ponds can keep from getting stagnant and keep agile.
  • djuancoleon
    Great post, I believe the issue is that the potential corporate clients are still learning how to ultilize social media. When more companies can realize quantifiable results based on a social media strategy, the flood gates will open. As we know business likes to copy and jump on trends that bring in a return on investment.
  • I am anxiously awaiting the exodus of the Internet Marketing Gurus that were created over the last several years. The best thing that could happen to online business is for the snake oil sales man to pack it up.

    New directions fuel the creative engine that propels society out of the dumps. By banding together we are able to brainstorm the solutions our children are counting on us to provide.

    Yes 2010 and on will be quite a ride.
  • Good post, Chris
  • I wrote 1950 words on this a couple of months ago, and was pleasantly surprised that anybody read it... and they did. Many good comments as well.
  • I forsee more collaboration between the age generations as the older folks will appreciate the younger set's innovation, while the younger folks will appreciate the qualities of a battle-tested experienced older person.
  • Enlightening!

    Team up with the social crowd, being the "social side" of social media and building stronger groups with heretics players.

    I cannot wait!

    Thanks for sharing Chris
  • Diffinetly think the meduim is important, apps allow for meduims to change and adapt and the new tools and tech allow evolution and usebillity and credibility of social media.
    DaraBell
  • elainefogel
    Consolidation can be a very positive thing. The only risk for talented people who leave their entrepreneurial activities to take jobs on the "inside" is becoming lost in an office environment. Organizational dynamics don't always foster stars and thought leaders. That can lead to several frustrated or stymied marketing experts.
  • Though this analysis is spot-on - I think it underplays the importance of a very real opportunity for people to jump in the game and start companies/launch products. Because thinning has occurred and people are pulling out of smaller opps to fold into bigger corps, there are fewer competitors and a growing ability get resources less expensively. So it's not all doom and gloom.

    Many of the big boys (Rockefellers, Mellons, etc) made their fortunes during the Depression precisely because they bought in. (It didn't hurt that they had cash either). So though the landscape is certainly challenging, there are windows of opportunity for the brave and the bold - and those who can hang in long enough to develop and maintain relationships. Agreed?
  • You can never go wrong on a collab. My biggest block in the past was to go to others for help but I've learned that nobody can do everything, especially in the social networking arena.
  • I think your analogy to prospecting in the gold rush is a fitting metaphor. We’ll see people redirect from the social media rush to find their opportunity making blue jeans for the miners, opening restaurants to feed them or building wagons to haul their equipment. I’m eager to see the similar applications growing out of the flurry of social media activity we’ve seen in the last two years. Not gloomy at all – just newly developing opportunities.
  • Smart ass comment alert: So if it's "just business" and this goes on all the time, in all industries, how much of a "prediction" for 2010 is this really?

    But you're right. I personally think there will be more consolidation than fold-up. As the bigger businesses seek to enter/increase their social media presence, they will either start hiring those that are looking to tuck themselves into larger entities, or they will buy the startups and integrate them. That's true business right there!

    P.S. When you purchase some of these "secret"possessions, if you start hiring, I'd love a shot. I have no problem being integrated! Take care and Happy Holidays!

    http://www.rebirthofpr.com
  • sarahwallace
    And, with this trend, do you think the term "social media" will also start to fade away and be folded back into just plain marketing?
  • bkjrecruiter
    Chris- Thanks for this post... I agree with you.. We are an "entitled" culture in the US, etc. and most people are not willing to put in the "activity" to sustain growth, an serve customers...
    Activity=Sales.. and sales makes the world spin....

    Best, Brian-
  • terryeast
    I agree with assessment (prediction) there will be a consoldiation as social media matures and the business models evolve to the next level

    The good news is we will see a lot of new content created about other subjects other than social media... that would be refreshing.
  • I was just reading a Social Media article by Angela Conner about giving yourself permission to opt-out of social medias and emails in 2010. This must the day of review, decluttering, and destressing.
  • I agree Chris. I think the value of collaborative efforts will be huge in 2010. It makes since to partner with multiple experts in various areas of your business to provide a higher level of value to clients and the community. Not to mention utilizing the leverage created from a group with strong interconnected relationships.
  • I would agree completely Chris, consolidation of fast moving and fast growth segments have been something that continues to persist. I know in the restaurant space where I write on the growth segments like fast casual we see this as well.

    I do think that the start up guys have used this time to position themselves so that the larger groups and companies recognize their efforts and achievements. Kind of a proving ground for new media types. And I do think we will see many SM evangelists moving on to bigger companies or partnering, there will be a few though that may take this as an opportunity to move into the vacant spot of thought leaders. In the case with Armano, he may get diluted some under a new org which would be a sad thing.

    But I always say there is someone right behind you with better and newer ideas unless you live and breath it.
  • I think Ev and Biz from Twitter will join up with Larry and Sergey from Google and present an off-shoot called Gitter. Then, they'll offer real-time credit services via a collaboration with Dun and Bradstreet, and the new brand will be called Gitter Dun.

    Ah, Blue Collar Comedy Tour, how I love thee ;-)
  • Do you see Tiger embracing the new spirit of 2010 in the Collaboration area, trying to gain new sponsors?
  • I think Tiger is the perfect example of people putting too much faith in "idols" - a good reminder that we should concentrate on ourselves and those around us as opposed to putting strangers on pedestals.
  • Michael Bailey
    With 21% unemployment, those "skills" you mentioned should include hunting, fishing, splitting firewood, fixing your own stuff, mending clothes, cooking food, and all the other basic life needs. It's not gloom-n-doom, it's the coming reality.
  • The real social media talent are those who are genuine, sincere relationship builders. It will be interesting to see how many Fortune 500s are capable of bringing that talent inside and allowing it to thrive.

    I predict heavy frustration for many who become "social media directors" within these companies that are likely still slaves to producing short-term shareholder results. Those who succeed in that environment are true superstars.
  • Yes, yes, yes. Too many snake oil, get rich quick, spammers out there. No substance has consequences. Being helpful will pay off in 2010. Collaborate yes, but still outsource. I remember when my agency was frowned upon for only having 38 employees. Now I hear "oh that's too bad" when I tell people there are 16 of us. Interesting times.
  • OK. I see the nudge there. I may not even rate as a 'solo' but I'm now considering collaborating more with other people who write about internal communications: http://kilobox.net/1280/

    Thanks for the push, Chris.
  • TomRoyce
    And don't forget that there will be companies that will start up in 2010 that will see new opportunities that the established firms think are too small to attack. Some of these companies will be the biggest competitors in the coming years.

    It is a cycle, as New Media Labs filled holes the traditional companies left open, odds are there will be new companies doing the same to New Media Labs. :)
  • Chris,

    It's interesting, I agree with you and it feel like 1994 all over again. I think that not only will we see some of what you said but we may see the tech sector start to lead the country out of the recession with big IPO's for companies that serve as platforms for social media. If you remember the early 90's well there was a bunch of media hype big IPO's and then real business models emerged. Just like technology advances, business advances have shorter cycle so not only does fold up and consolidate happen quicker but better more successful business models will emerge quicker as well.
  • One Note: My comment about leading out of the recession depend on the currency staying stable and inflation not skyrocketing.
  • philsimonsystems
    Good post, Chris.

    I also agree with Flag's comment:

    ***I think we will also see more people and companies who had "pooh-poohed" the social media activities move into the arena and act like they just invented it.

    I'm very curious to see how organizations' social networking policies evolve. Perhaps more of them will eventually "get it."
  • I think we'll see people yesterday's Social Media Corporate laggards finally get into the space just as the early adopters needs are evolving beyond simple monitoring. We now know that we can aggregate streams, monitor trends, zero in on influencers and understand sentiment (with mixed success). I think now, companies will began to demand more on the measurement side of things. 2010 will be a big year for metrics. http://bit.ly/5Ju1ft
  • Chris,

    I have to agree that 2009 was a big shake up for many people. Social hit the scene and the gold rush began but we're starting to see things settle down a bit. The cream always rises to the top and over the past year we've seen many succeed and I suspect they will continue to do so. We also saw how the tools can expose those that don't have the chops or were misaligned in creating a new business model for themselves.

    The relationships that I've made over the past year have been invaluable and I'm excited for what the future holds in many of the endeavors I am undertaking. Learning from experts such as yourself, Amber Nasland, Oliver Blanchard, and more have helped me navigate the waters and I appreciate how giving you all have been.

    Lastly, I think more and more companies will seek out the talent that can help propel their organizations to new heights. We're at the beginning of this ever-changing communication age, my magic eight ball predicts lots of surprises for 2010.
  • In a nutshell Chris, I think your post is an ad for the network.

    2010 will I think be all about the talent, and how to connect the talent together.

    That, and the need for some 'blatant integrity' rules and protocols around the way we develop business.
  • Carl Wirth
    Glad to hear these comments. Overall I think business needs to do this also.
  • I completely agree with the premise...just wonder on timing. Fact is social media consulting is not a capital intensive business and most "companies" are a few contractors that work as projects come in.They can hang in longer that you may think...or at least not get realistic with pricing for their business or talent.

    Those of us with money, experience and cash flow will have great opportunity at some point in 2010. The good news is everyone in this space will win. Regardless of if you are an acquirer, large company looking for great talent or a talented social media marketer. We are all in the right place at the right time.

    Here's to a prosperous and healthy new year for all!
  • thomsinger
    I think we will also see more people and companies who had "pooh-poohed" the social media activities move into the arena and act like they just invented it.

    As for people moving in-house, smart companies will both take people in as employees, but even smarter companies will partner with those who are looking to do great things and allow them to maintain their entrepreneurial charge while lending their brands to the company. The biggest change I am seeing is that there are fewer "rules" on how the "employement arrangement" is set up - with more "results oriented" focus mattering.
  • 'Consolidation & FoldUps" were definitely on the way as soon as it became clear that they're not going to be able to figure out a way to properly monetize online media.

    I switched from entertainment video back to corporate video, which is what I used to do before, except not on the internet. Combining my sensibilities for Quality Control with my knowledge of posting, compression and Social Media, I have more work than I want right now.

    The Space is basically a medium for getting in, making a go of it for several months or a year or two, converting and getting out. A lot of people are finding out that they can't convert, so they're bailing for more familiar means of making ends meet.
  • I have been working collaboratively on short term projects with a number of folks over the last couple of years. I see 2010 will lead me to work on longer term projects with those that I have built a level of trust with.

    In my area (the Silicon Valley) I am seeing a ton of people who would consider themselves solo "consultants" joining forces frequently with those around them. Usually people they have met by frequently attending events or participating in social media.

    Although I agree many larger companies will continue to identify emerging thought leaders and talented professionals I am under the strong impression that the next year or three we will see the rise of more entrepreneurs and consultants banding together to service each others clients. Social media is helping to accelerate the process of "getting to know" your potential partners.
  • timdempsey
    One of the aspects of the dot com bubble was the amount of infrastructure that got created to support all of those (fairly small) ideas: accounting systems, office space and furniture, HR departments, parking privileges, BMW leases, etc. I am actually optimistic for the long term future of the kernel social media concepts, given this broadly predicted mini bubble burst. Does this teach us it really is the message (vs. the medium)?
  • Great advice. Really collaboration makes us stronger.
  • Thanks a lot for this post Chris, this is really a great realistic post for which i am looking.. This is true that in 2010 we will See the Consolidation and FoldUps.. Thanks for aware us with this information before 2010.
  • The live music industry has aggressively used both user-generated content and social media to market and engage/empower fans. I've interviewed fans and gotten their thoughts about social media and the live music exeperience but I'd like to know what you think about social's continued impact on the live music industry in 2010.
  • Financial turmoil is always a time of big opportunities. And yes, it's always great to team up with people who are strong in the areas that we are weak.
  • So wait...something will happen? Companies will either succeed or fail? People will move to and fro?
    Bold predictions, these aren't.
  • That's what I was thinking. Singles will become multiples, multiples will become more multiples, and some will go away. Happens everyday.

    I see fewer big companies, more smaller ones, and more alliances - not employee/employer relationships. That just results in more tax and insurance obligations. Who needs it.

    Change, that much we can all agree on. :)
  • I think you're right, a lot of startup renegades will be absorbed into corporate gigs in 2010. As difficult as the economy was in 2009, there were also moments of creative brilliance and freedom for those of us trying to win the fight of new media within our niches. One day, when things "normalize," many of us will sit in our swanky corner offices and reminisce "Remember 2009? Wasn't that great?! We did some great stuff back then." Is it sad? No. Shaping the corporate culture from within is the next logical step of the new media evolution. Much gratitude and respect to you and David Armano for your thought provoking contributions and leadership during a phenomenal year, and all the best from wherever you continue the cause in 2010. All choices are valid.
  • In part it depends on how adoption of web 2.0 channels increase beyond the early adopter/innovators that have embraced social space past few years. Are we not still on the rising part of the curve? Or are we on the downslope?

    I think we'll see fold ups but I think we'll see more mergers and growth among larger players.
  • Facebook seems to be in the late majority phase while Twitter is still in early majority (if you're talking about classic innovation diffusion models). Regardless, both are well beyond early adopter.

    I also have some doubt that larger players will merge (in the traditional acquisition sense). If we've learned anything recently it's that small, nimble companies with great ideas can grow up without being acquired by Google. Instead, I think we'll see larger firms work together more (like we've seen with LinkedIn, Facebook, and Twitter playing relatively nicely). This, however, has negative externalities in that it could stifle the innovation of smaller firms.
  • Don't you ever get tired of being right? Despite the projected growth of social media, the field is crowded and the economy is only beginning to recover. That's a recipe for consolidation. Your advice is, as usual, on target.
  • digiphile
    I suspect the Fortune 500 will go looking for talent to bring in-house, if early adopters aren't available internally. There's still a high ceiling -- and need -- for decent corporate blogs, authentic social media managers and innovative internal implementations of social computing platforms.

    Aside from personnel, it's fun to think about the bigger picture, too. Government is increasingly a big player in this space, as is Google. Social is going to be more mainstream and have more money flow into it than ever before, if marketing investment projections line up.

    Here's hoping that the snake oil is wrung out in the process. I suspect another casualty may be the word "social" itself, as I commented at length on Andy McAfee's blog today. Collaboration and results are in, hype and hysteria are out.

    Last bet: protecting identity, security and trust will plague adoption of all of these platforms, whether they're in the public or private space. If we're giving away our data, social graphs, interactions and transactions, we'll expect to retain our identities, credentials and privacy. Companies that abuse that relationship will experience viral backlash that beggars the ire we've seen to date.

    Aren't predictions fun?
  • Right on.

    The Fortune Brands will seek out the guerrilla talent, again, hopefully 'wringing out the snake oil' in the process.

    Excellent points.
  • I'm with you on all counts here.
  • I couldn't agree with you more, in every industry there is a settling or as I call it separation of the wheat from the chaff -- where everyone gets back to business and the "shiny-ness" of an object dulls :-) Great prediction.
  • I've never liked constraining predictions to the boundaries of a year, but it's easy to write about.

    Hopefully 2010 is the year that new filter technology makes the social space easier for the mainstream to grasp. As for individuals consolidating or folding up, that is likely the continuation of a general trend in which dominant processes and functions of society are increasingly centered around networks.

    Also, I look forward to a lot of "pretenders" closing the doors on their shoddy blogs, so hopefully you're right about that Chris.
  • Interesting perspective, and it's hard to disagree with your assessment frankly. It's probably what makes the most sense for the social space to truly flourish. I'm hearing about all kinds of opportunities right now that would have been unheard of a year ago. The market is getting its footing, and with that comes serious plays in the industry by companies that see the opportunity to scoop up the most promising stars.

    As my neighbor Kyle would say, Shine On Chris. :)
  • we shall see many fold ups, thats right!
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